Only last week, after the January transfer window had closed without the addition of a forward to his Arsenal squad, Mikel Arteta spoke about the need to be “flexible” in attack to cope with the absences of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus.
A daunting task has become even more difficult now.
Having already lost Gabriel Martinelli to a hamstring injury for more than a month in the Carabao Cup defeat to Newcastle, Arsenal are fearful Kai Havertz’s season could be over after he suffered a suspected tear to the same muscle while training in Dubai.
Havertz’s absence leaves Leandro Trossard, Raheem Sterling and the 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri as Arsenal’s only other available attacking options. Saka is still some way from returning from his hamstring problem, despite stepping up his rehabilitation in Dubai. Jesus is out for the season with his knee injury.
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The absence of Jesus had left Havertz as Arsenal’s only option in the striker position, with Arteta admitting last week that the 25-year-old may have to start every game between now and the end of the campaign. But he had already shouldered a huge workload.
Only William Saliba and Gabriel have played more minutes than Havertz of Arsenal’s outfield players this season. Havertz is already up to 34 appearances in all competitions having made 51 last term. On top of that, the role of the No 9 under Arteta is uniquely demanding physically.
Premier League tracking data for this season shows it. Jesus and Havertz rank first and fifth respectively among strikers for distance covered per 90 minutes. It is worth noting Dominic Solanke, who gets through a similar amount of running for their north London rivals Tottenham, has also been sidelined by an injury lately.
Of course, injuries are not solely down to load. Luck plays a part too.
But in Havertz’s case, in particular, it should come as no great surprise that he has fallen victim. Arteta described him as a “genetic powerhouse” last week but every player has his limits and Havertz looked close to his in Arsenal’s recent games.
He produced an epic shift, even by his standards, in the 1-0 win over Wolves in which Arsenal played almost an hour with 10 men. He then played 89 minutes of the 5-1 win over Manchester City and completed the 90 away to Newcastle despite that tie being dead in the second half.
Arteta’s hand was forced, at least to some extent, by a lack of available alternatives. But it is reasonable to wonder if more could have been done to protect a player who has run further than anyone else at Arsenal this season and also ranks top for pressures and attacking runs.
A warm-weather break intended for much-needed rest and recuperation evidently came too late for him.
Who could fill in at No 9?
Arteta mentioned all three of Trossard, Sterling and Nwaneri as false-nine options last week. The former looks the favourite for the job having played 723 Premier League minutes in the position for Arsenal, roughly a quarter of his total since his arrival two years ago.
Whether he could provide the required goal threat is another question. Havertz’s finishing has frustrated at times but he is Arsenal’s top scorer with nine goals in the Premier League. His total of 15 in all competitions had put him on track for the highest-scoring season of his career.
Trossard, by contrast, has only found the net five times in total this term and has only scored once, in the 2-1 win over Tottenham in January, in his last 18 appearances in all competitions.
Sterling’s form is even less convincing.
The Chelsea loanee has shown signs of improvement out of possession in recent cameos. His total of five tackles against Spurs was his second highest in a Premier League game.
But he has only scored once all season, in the Carabao Cup against Bolton. His lack of confidence in front of goal was summed up by his missed penalty in the Champions League win over Girona.
Then there is Nwaneri. Moving a player of only 17 into such an unfamiliar role would be a huge ask from Arteta but the academy product certainly looks Arsenal’s biggest goal threat right now.
With seven goals in only 700 minutes this season, his average of 0.90 per 90 minutes is the highest of all Premier League players in all competitions. He also ranks top among Arsenal players for shots on target per 90 minutes, as well as shooting accuracy rate and shot conversion.
Given the danger he poses when cutting in from the right-hand side and aiming shots towards the far corner, as he did successfully in the recent games against Girona and Manchester City, Arteta may feel he is better off keeping him in his natural position.
An alternative option for Arteta would be to go off-piste and repurpose one of his midfielders.
Could Mikel Merino be worth trialling in the position? It would be a tough task for the Spain international, who is still finding his feet in English football, but he does at least have the physical qualities and aerial strength to serve as an outlet in a similar style to Havertz.
Regardless of what Arteta does in the No 9 position, he is going to need to get creative in the wide positions too. Trossard, Sterling and Nwaneri cannot be expected to play every minute. Others, such as Myles Lewis-Skelly or even Kieran Tierney, might have to be used further forward.
Arteta has, of course, already promoted the club’s best academy players in Nwaneri and Lewis-Skelly, but others on the fringes of the first team, such as wingers Nathan Butler-Oyedeji and Ismeal Kabia, might now need to be called on too.
Injury crisis adds to January questions
What is certain is that there is no perfect solution.
Arsenal are already six points behind Premier League leaders Liverpool, who play their game in hand against Everton on Wednesday night. They cannot afford any further slip-ups, regardless of the result in that game at Goodison Park.
But the reality is sights might have to be lowered. Arsenal’s title chances had already been heavily impacted by the injuries to Jesus, Saka and Martinelli, and while the latter two are due to return in the weeks and months ahead, the addition of Havertz to the long-term absentee list is the heaviest blow yet.
All of it serves to intensify the scrutiny of Arsenal’s decision not to strengthen in January, having failed in a bid for Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins. The club’s attitude was that it was better to wait for the summer, when long-term targets become available. But it felt like a gamble, even before their injury crisis deepened.
It is one that has backfired.
